The Art of The Bad Deal

“He’s all hat and no cattle” is a quip Jim Hightower uses to describe feckless, blowhard politicians. Google AI says this old Texas colloquialism means someone who “talks a big game, acts showy, or makes grand promises, but lacks the actual substance, wealth, or capability to back it up.”

Donald Trump’s foreign policy, especially with the Iran war, is all bluster and bluff with no substance or positive results. He is all hat and mouth but no cattle.

The U.S. and Iran have signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to allegedly end the war. But this is not a peace treaty. It is a 60-day extension of the already existing ceasefire (which didn’t actually stop the fighting) while negotiations continue. These negotiations are fragile and the 60 day period is probably too short to achieve a real peace treaty. It is questionable whether this process will accomplish anything.

The MOU was suppose to end fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. But Israel and Hezbollah are not parties to the agreement and have not stopped fighting.

The status of the Straights of Hormuz continues to be in question. Immediately after the MOU was signed, Trump threatened to resume bombing Iran (threats are a violation of the MOU) saying Iran “won’t have a country” if the Straights are closed and the U.S. will “take over” Iran and assassinate Iranian negotiators. In response Iran again closed the Straights (but has since re-opened them). Some ships have been allowed through but Iran says use of the Straights will not return to pre-war normal.

The status of Iran’s nuclear program continues to be in dispute. Trump and Vance claim Iran’s nuclear capability has been destroyed. They claim Iran has agreed to international inspections of this supposedly non-existent nuclear program. Iran says they did not agree to inspections.

It appears that “negotiating with bombs”( as Secretary of Defense Hegseth said we would do) or with threats, contradictory press statements and self-serving social media posts is not working well. The chances of a lasting settlement in the next 60 days seems slim.

We know from past experience that Trump talks big about being a great “deal maker. But the nuclear “deal” with North Korea, during his first administration, was all photo op and self-serving headlines with nothing actually achieved. Trump’s claim to end the war in Ukraine “on day one” was just hot air. His ceasefire and “peace” deal in Gaza has been a sham that Israel has violated daily. The genocide in Gaza continues and the ethnic cleansing in the West Bank is intensifying.

But at least the Trump administration is talking with Iran (via mediators – we have no diplomatic relations with Iran). They appear to be trying to get out of the hole they, and Israel, have dug for themselves. I suspect this is not because they recognize that starting this war was a mistake. It is probably that Trump’s fragile ego can’t stand being a “looser.” So they are making concessions to Iran in a desperate attempt to declare victory.

A variety of commentators and experts are criticizing Trump’s 14 point “deal” for making too many concessions to Iran while not accomplishing the stated objectives of the war. Certainly the war did not result in “regime change” in Iran. Iran’s alleged “nuclear ambitions” have not been eliminated. Iran’s capacity to enrich uranium has at best only been delayed. Clearly bombing will never change Iran’s desire to develop nukes as long as Israel has nukes.

The MOU requires the U.S. to end its naval blockade and remove its military forces from the Persian Gulf area. The U.S. will lift economic sanctions, release Iran’s frozen bank accounts and allow Iranian oil sales for the 60 days of negotiations. The U.S. has pledged $300 billion in reparations to rebuild Iran.

In return Iran promised not to develop nuclear weapons. Prior to the war, Iran had repeatedly stated they were not developing nukes and this pledge was in the 2015 nuclear agreement (JCPOA) which Trump withdrew from in May of 2018. Under the MOU Iran’s nuclear program, the main reason for the war, is still to be negotiated. Iran also agreed to provide safe passage for commercial ships for 60 days. But the final status of the Straights is still up in the air.

In addition the MOU says any final agreement must be endorsed by a binding resolution of the U.N. Security Council. Ironically, Trump, who claims he “rules the world,” has been forced into accepting U.N. approval and international diplomacy to end the war he started. Allowing U.S. actions to be subject to U.N. resolutions or international law has always been anathema for right wing Republicans.

CNN has the full text of the MOU with analysis in their article “The 14-point US-Iran peace plan, annotated” (June 17, 2026).

Even Trump supporters are not happy with the “deal” being negotiated. Republican Senator Bill Cassidy has called the agreement, “…the worst foreign policy blunder in decades.” Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Roger Wicker, a Republican and Trump supporter, says the MOU, “…negotiates away the victories [of the war] in ways that are completely out of step with the President’s goals.”

Daniel Schneiderman, a foreign policy expert with many years of hands-on experience, says, “Sadly, the terms of this deal also lay bare how fundamentally flawed the decision to go to war in the first place was. The lack of a strategy meant from the beginning that the cost of ending it would be “astronomical” (see “An Analysis of the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding,” Perry World House, University of Pennsylvania). He says the 2015 JCPOA agreement, “…had an international coalition and real enforcement and verification mechanisms behind it (which this deal does not yet have).”

A better strategy for convincing Iran to abandon its “nuclear ambitions” would be eliminating the reasons they might want nukes. Israel has nukes and a record of attacking other countries in the region. The U.S. has nukes and has attacked countries in the region. Both consider Iran an enemy.  But having nukes is widely considered a deterrent to attack.

The U.S. should embrace peace and to actively work to eliminate all nuclear weapons from all nations. The U.N. Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons provides the framework. The world would be much safer for everyone if we did.